Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  10.5  15.5  21.8  29.4  42.3  42.3  42.3  F  F  F  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  21.0  20.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 127.3 127.3 118.6 108.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -36.0 -57.0 -34.0 -44.0 -55.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%       11.4%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.8%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       11.2%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 AL112023 230830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  10.5  15.5  21.8  29.4  42.3  42.3  42.3  U  U  U  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%