Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  15.1  21.4  23.6  32.5  39.2  39.2  39.2  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  20.0  18.0  16.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 127.3 127.3 118.6 108.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -47.0 -47.0 -48.0 -26.0   0.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        9.3%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        9.2%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 AL112023 230830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  15.1  21.4  23.6  32.5  39.2  39.2  39.2  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%