Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  21.5  25.4  30.4  41.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  F  N  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  19.0  17.0  16.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 127.3 122.9 112.4 103.0 103.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -66.0 -51.0 -42.0 -17.0 -18.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  54.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   4.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 AL112023 230830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.30     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  21.5  25.4  30.4  41.8  36.8  36.8  36.8  U  N  N  N VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  54.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   4.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%