Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  22.5  26.1  35.2  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  18.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 122.9 118.6 108.5 108.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -57.0 -45.0 -47.0 -70.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 AL112023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  22.5  26.1  35.2  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%