Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112023 230831 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 52.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.7 25.4 35.2 39.3 42.1 42.1 42.1 42.1 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 122.3 117.9 113.6 107.4 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -53.0 -59.0 -58.0 -7.0 82.0 82.0 82.0 82.0 VU VU VU U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 46.0 51.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 VU VU VU U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 1.0 9.0 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 N N N U F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.8% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.7% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.8% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.84 AL112023 230831 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 52.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.7 25.4 35.2 39.3 42.1 42.1 42.1 42.1 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 46.0 51.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 VF VF VF F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 1.0 9.0 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 N N N F U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%