Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  36.0  38.1  36.4  43.8  43.8  43.8  43.8  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  16.0  10.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 108.6 102.4  93.0  76.5  76.5  76.5  76.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -46.0 -58.0 -11.0 -11.0  93.0  93.0  93.0  93.0 VU VU  U  U  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  51.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  10.0  16.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 AL112023 230831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  36.0  38.1  36.4  43.8  43.8  43.8  43.8  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  51.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  10.0  16.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%