Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     52.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  40.6  39.7  44.7  44.7  44.7  44.7  44.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 107.4  98.0  87.7  87.7  87.7  87.7  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -45.0 -29.0   7.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  49.0  56.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  15.0  21.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  U VU  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 AL112023 230831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     52.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.