Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  39.0  46.3  55.8  55.8  55.8  55.8  55.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0  11.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.6  81.0  74.6  64.4  64.4  64.4  64.4  64.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0   2.0  22.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  56.0  56.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  35.0   4.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0 VU VU  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.50

 AL112023 230901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.