Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112023 230901 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.80 52.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.4 42.8 46.0 60.1 60.1 60.1 60.1 60.1 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 12.0 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.2 76.1 64.4 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 N U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 58.0 77.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 U N N F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 57.0 52.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 37.0 12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 VU U F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.66 AL112023 230901 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.80 52.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.