Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.8  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.0  59.4  59.4  59.4  59.4  59.4  59.4  59.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0  N VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.80

 AL112023 230901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.