Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112023 230902 00UTC Storm Located at : 41.30 48.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 156.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 68.9 89.1 89.1 89.1 89.1 89.1 89.1 89.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 14.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 94.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -72.0 -99.0 -99.0 -99.0 -99.0 -99.0 -99.0 -99.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 15.76 AL112023 230902 00UTC Storm Located at : 41.30 48.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.