Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     28.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  26.6  25.1  26.6  28.4  28.6  26.9  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   7.0   6.0   9.0   3.0   4.0   6.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.8  79.4  80.8  80.8  85.0  88.0  89.6  94.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   2.0 -35.0 -22.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  37.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0  14.0  14.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.48

 AL122023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     28.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.