Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122023 230902 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 28.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.4 20.2 24.5 29.0 25.4 25.8 18.9 15.1 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.8 79.4 80.8 82.2 85.0 88.0 91.1 94.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 14.0 27.0 26.0 -9.0 -26.0 -52.0 -29.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 54.0 52.0 48.0 46.0 40.0 37.0 33.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 15.0 15.0 7.0 6.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 U U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.48 AL122023 230902 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 28.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.