Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122023 230902 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.20 29.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 24.2 27.0 28.6 25.8 24.0 20.9 16.8 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 7.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.4 75.8 77.2 78.6 83.0 86.1 89.3 89.3 U U U N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 38.0 21.0 -4.0 -27.0 -29.0 -20.0 4.0 U N U U VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 52.0 48.0 47.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 38.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 17.0 8.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 U U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.52 AL122023 230902 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.20 29.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.