Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     29.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  26.6  27.9  26.4  27.5  20.8  17.2  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.8  65.8  68.6  68.6  73.0  76.1  77.7  79.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0   8.0  -1.0 -17.0  -8.0 -21.0 -40.0 -12.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  40.0  38.0  35.0  40.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  11.0   4.0   8.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   2.0 VU  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.56

 AL122023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     29.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.