Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122023 230902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50     30.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  29.2  28.9  29.0  25.1  23.6  27.8  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.8  63.6  63.6  66.5  69.6  74.3  74.3  74.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   6.0 -26.0 -37.0 -37.0 -82.0  -1.0 -15.0  N  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  47.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  41.0  45.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        1.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.64

 AL122023 230902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50     30.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.