Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20     30.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  32.4  29.6  25.9  23.1  26.7  27.0  28.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.6  78.0  78.0  81.1  82.7  84.3  84.3  84.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0 -22.0 -43.0 -12.0 -54.0 -48.0 -15.0 -10.0  U VU VU  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  42.0  39.0  38.0  40.0  44.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.90

 AL122023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20     30.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.