Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122023 230903 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 31.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.9 29.6 27.9 24.5 23.8 27.9 26.5 30.1 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 7.0 6.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 81.5 84.6 84.6 87.7 89.3 89.3 89.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -35.0 -23.0 -47.0 -64.0 -26.0 8.0 -34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 42.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 40.0 45.0 51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 -4.0 -6.0 U N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.94 AL122023 230903 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 31.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.