Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122023 230903 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.50 32.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.7 27.2 23.2 21.4 22.1 21.9 25.1 19.7 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 84.6 84.6 84.6 87.7 87.7 87.7 86.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -32.0 -9.0 -44.0 -27.0 -44.0 -6.0 -19.0 -27.0 VU U VU VU VU U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 39.0 38.0 36.0 35.0 41.0 44.0 49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 -7.0 -4.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.98 AL122023 230903 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.50 32.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.