Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122023 230904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  23.6  22.6  22.5  21.2  17.6  19.6  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  92.7  92.7  92.7  92.7  91.1  89.6  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -53.0 -36.0 -17.0 -14.0 -50.0   0.0 -14.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  34.0  35.0  39.0  44.0  46.0  48.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0 -10.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.22

 AL122023 230904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.