Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122023 230904 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.90 34.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 21.6 23.4 21.9 17.6 15.4 17.7 18.8 N N N N F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 89.6 89.6 88.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -29.0 -35.0 -59.0 -54.0 -48.0 -2.0 -37.0 -5.0 VU VU VU VU VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 31.0 36.0 39.0 41.0 46.0 46.0 44.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -1.0 -7.0 -7.0 -2.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.30 AL122023 230904 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.90 34.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.