Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  19.5  19.4  22.8  24.4  23.6  14.4  24.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  35.0  33.0  44.0  53.0  56.0  70.0  49.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 120.7 120.7 118.6 120.7 125.1 129.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 108.0 132.0  98.0 108.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0 -15.0 -11.0 -15.0  N  N  F  F  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.9%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       16.9%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        6.5%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        5.8%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.8%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       25.5%       15.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.5%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h       19.4%       19.4%       19.4%
 70kt / 48h       19.4%       11.0%       15.2%
 65kt / 72h       40.0%       32.1%       36.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 AL132023 230905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  19.5  19.4  22.8  24.4  23.6  14.4  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0 -15.0 -11.0 -15.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%