Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     41.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  22.0  24.8  25.7  20.3  17.0  20.3  21.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  36.0  59.0  60.0  54.0  65.0  49.0  71.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        113.6 115.7 111.5 113.6 113.6 120.1 122.3 127.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0 127.0 105.0  72.0  48.0  12.0   3.0  63.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -7.0 -10.0  -9.0 -12.0 -11.0 -15.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.5%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       16.5%       13.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        6.2%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        5.8%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        5.8%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%       24.4%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.3%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.8%       21.8%       21.8%
 70kt / 48h       21.8%       11.5%       16.6%
 65kt / 72h       32.9%       28.0%       30.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 AL132023 230905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     41.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  22.0  24.8  25.7  20.3  17.0  20.3  21.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -7.0 -10.0  -9.0 -12.0 -11.0 -15.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%