Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     44.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  27.0  25.9  18.3  15.0  18.8  19.4  19.4  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  60.0  51.0  54.0  66.0  50.0  73.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.7  93.6  93.6  93.6 100.1 102.3 107.0 109.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  70.0  58.0  33.0   1.0   2.0  51.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -13.0  -6.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.2%       10.7%       16.5%
 25kt / 24h       35.2%       38.6%       36.9%
 30kt / 24h       23.6%       24.7%       24.2%
 35kt / 24h       17.3%       24.7%       21.0%
 40kt / 24h       15.5%       24.5%       20.0%
 45kt / 36h       23.6%       43.5%       33.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.4%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%       15.0%       16.3%
 70kt / 48h       15.0%       17.5%       16.2%
 65kt / 72h       18.8%       28.6%       23.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 AL132023 230906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     44.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  27.0  25.9  18.3  15.0  18.8  19.4  19.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -13.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%