Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     45.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  27.9  21.4  19.7  16.8  21.8  17.4  19.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  51.0  53.0  57.0  71.0  55.0  72.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         88.6  88.6  88.6  92.9  97.3  99.6 104.3 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  33.0  26.0 -10.0 -11.0  33.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -9.0  -9.0 -11.0 -10.0 -13.0 -12.0  -9.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.8%        6.6%       12.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       25.7%       23.7%
 30kt / 24h       18.3%       15.2%       16.8%
 35kt / 24h       13.2%       15.2%       14.2%
 40kt / 24h       13.2%       15.2%       14.2%
 45kt / 36h       19.4%       26.4%       22.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.3%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h       11.1%        9.7%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%        7.6%        8.3%
 65kt / 72h       15.2%       17.1%       16.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 AL132023 230906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     45.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  27.9  21.4  19.7  16.8  21.8  17.4  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -9.0  -9.0 -11.0 -10.0 -13.0 -12.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%