Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     46.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  20.2  17.2  13.2  20.4  19.8  24.7  20.8  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  48.0  58.0  63.0  54.0  68.0  63.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         83.6  83.6  87.9  87.9  92.3  94.6  99.3 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   7.0 -17.0  -4.0   8.0  74.0  39.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0 -10.0 -10.0  -9.0 -11.0 -11.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.7%        7.9%       11.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.3%       29.8%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h       19.0%       21.0%       20.0%
 35kt / 24h       14.2%       21.0%       17.6%
 40kt / 24h       13.7%       21.0%       17.3%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%       23.7%       21.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.2%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%       11.0%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%        6.3%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       13.7%       12.1%       12.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 AL132023 230906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     46.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  20.2  17.2  13.2  20.4  19.8  24.7  20.8  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0 -10.0 -10.0  -9.0 -11.0 -11.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%