Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     47.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.7  16.3  17.5  25.0  22.0  24.5  16.7  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  59.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  70.0  62.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.7  80.7  82.9  82.9  87.3  92.0  94.3  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0 -13.0  -1.0  -2.0  38.0  62.0  24.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -13.0 -12.0 -10.0 -10.0 -15.0  -4.0  -5.0  F VF  F  F  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.9%       14.7%       21.3%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       37.6%       31.9%
 30kt / 24h       26.2%       31.3%       28.8%
 35kt / 24h       23.2%       31.3%       27.3%
 40kt / 24h       23.2%       30.9%       27.1%
 45kt / 36h       21.1%       22.0%       21.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.4%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%       11.1%       12.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%        5.5%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%       10.0%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 AL132023 230907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     47.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.7  16.3  17.5  25.0  22.0  24.5  16.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -13.0 -12.0 -10.0 -10.0 -15.0  -4.0  -5.0  U VU  U  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%