Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     48.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  13.9  15.2  21.2  20.2  26.2  20.8  20.8  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  62.0  58.0  53.0  66.0  64.0  70.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]         80.7  82.9  82.9  85.1  89.6  94.3  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0   0.0 -18.0   1.0  71.0  10.0  19.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -9.0  -8.0  -8.0 -11.0  -8.0   0.0  -6.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.0%       13.9%       15.5%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       33.8%       27.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.3%       27.7%       24.0%
 35kt / 24h       15.4%       27.7%       21.5%
 40kt / 24h       14.1%       27.3%       20.7%
 45kt / 36h       19.4%       19.9%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.8%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%       11.5%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        4.3%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       10.8%        8.4%        9.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 AL132023 230907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     48.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  13.9  15.2  21.2  20.2  26.2  20.8  20.8  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -9.0  -8.0  -8.0 -11.0  -8.0   0.0  -6.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%