Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     49.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  14.5  21.0  23.9  19.9  22.3  19.7  16.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  58.0  52.0  54.0  68.0  63.0  84.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]         72.9  72.9  75.1  77.3  82.0  84.3  85.0  85.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -2.0  13.0  42.0  62.0 -34.0 -10.0  11.0  U  U  U  N  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -6.0 -10.0 -10.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.2%       28.6%       37.4%
 25kt / 24h       37.0%       45.4%       41.2%
 30kt / 24h       35.7%       42.6%       39.1%
 35kt / 24h       33.1%       42.6%       37.8%
 40kt / 24h       33.1%       41.0%       37.1%
 45kt / 36h       38.5%       30.2%       34.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.2%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.1%       13.1%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        9.8%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 AL132023 230907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     49.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  14.5  21.0  23.9  19.9  22.3  19.7  16.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -6.0 -10.0 -10.0  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%