Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     50.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  21.7  24.9  21.9  27.1  21.9  17.6  16.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  51.0  56.0  63.0  63.0  71.0  89.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]         47.9  52.3  52.3  54.6  59.3  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   3.0  42.0  53.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  12.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0  -9.0 -12.0  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.1%       23.4%       40.7%
 25kt / 24h       30.6%       29.5%       30.0%
 30kt / 24h       28.7%       24.9%       26.8%
 35kt / 24h       27.3%       24.9%       26.1%
 40kt / 24h       27.3%       22.8%       25.0%
 45kt / 36h       64.4%       23.9%       44.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 AL132023 230907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     50.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  21.7  24.9  21.9  27.1  21.9  17.6  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0  -9.0 -12.0  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%