Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     51.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.4  22.1  24.7  26.2  19.4  16.1  11.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  54.0  62.0  66.0  62.0  79.0  90.0  89.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]         20.1  24.6  27.0  29.3  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  47.0  69.0  38.0 -10.0  13.0  17.0  10.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0  -8.0 -10.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 AL132023 230908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     51.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.4  22.1  24.7  26.2  19.4  16.1  11.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0  -8.0 -10.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%