Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     53.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  23.6  25.0  29.0  23.1  17.6  17.8  14.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  62.0  68.0  64.0  68.0  88.0  89.0  89.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         14.6  17.0  19.3  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  79.0  48.0   8.0  15.0  -2.0   3.0  13.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 AL132023 230908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     53.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  23.6  25.0  29.0  23.1  17.6  17.8  14.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -1.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%