Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230908 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 54.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.6 25.7 29.1 27.7 21.5 19.7 12.5 16.7 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 65.0 64.0 62.0 70.0 82.0 82.0 84.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 32.0 34.3 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 103.0 75.0 18.0 -22.0 14.0 7.0 24.0 16.0 F N U VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 60.0 60.0 59.0 61.0 60.0 60.0 59.0 U N N U N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0 -7.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 F F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 0.7% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.38 AL132023 230908 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 54.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.6 25.7 29.1 27.7 21.5 19.7 12.5 16.7 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 60.0 60.0 59.0 61.0 60.0 60.0 59.0 F N N F N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0 -7.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 U U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 11.2% 5.6%