Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230908 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 55.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.3 27.1 27.5 24.3 23.2 17.8 13.2 13.7 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 62.0 61.0 64.0 76.0 79.0 84.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 32.0 34.3 34.3 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 8.0 -22.0 -5.0 -27.0 18.0 -20.0 44.0 F U VU U VU U VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 59.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.36 AL132023 230908 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 55.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.3 27.1 27.5 24.3 23.2 17.8 13.2 13.7 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 59.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 17.2% 8.6%