Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     56.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  26.1  24.7  22.9  20.8  13.0  13.7   9.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  62.0  63.0  70.0  81.0  82.0  86.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         59.3  59.3  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0 -10.0   3.0   6.0 -18.0   1.0  15.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        0.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 AL132023 230909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00     56.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  26.1  24.7  22.9  20.8  13.0  13.7   9.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       14.1%        7.0%