Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  25.8  22.7  20.8  16.3  14.2  16.0  17.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  63.0  68.0  78.0  81.0  83.0  82.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  -4.0  21.0 -20.0  21.0   6.0  41.0 -16.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.9%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%        0.6%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        0.8%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 AL132023 230909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  25.8  22.7  20.8  16.3  14.2  16.0  17.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%