Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     57.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  22.6  20.4  18.9  15.5  17.3  13.7  18.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  70.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  80.0  73.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0   5.0 -25.0  12.0  21.0  17.0  48.0   2.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        3.1%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        8.8%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        5.9%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        5.4%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        5.2%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h       28.6%        4.3%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        2.2%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL132023 230909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     57.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  22.6  20.4  18.9  15.5  17.3  13.7  18.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%