Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  21.2  18.3  17.7  14.2  15.5  17.6  13.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  80.0  75.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0 -22.0  16.0  32.0  -9.0  62.0 -15.0  29.0  U VU  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        5.2%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%       14.4%       12.3%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%       10.0%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%        9.7%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        9.3%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h       41.3%        8.7%       25.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%        3.9%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 AL132023 230909 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  21.2  18.3  17.7  14.2  15.5  17.6  13.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%