Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     59.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  19.0  14.8  12.3  16.5  13.9  17.4  14.6  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  68.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  19.0  16.0  21.0  45.0  41.0   7.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        3.6%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h        9.3%       13.8%       11.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%        9.4%        9.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        8.8%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%        8.8%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h       37.3%        5.9%       21.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.9%        4.4%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 AL132023 230910 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     59.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  19.0  14.8  12.3  16.5  13.9  17.4  14.6  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%