Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     60.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  17.1  14.4  14.4  15.2  17.0  14.1  22.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  76.0  78.0  80.0  71.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  19.0   7.0   8.0  73.0 -22.0  58.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        5.1%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.8%       20.6%       16.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.6%       16.4%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       16.2%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       14.9%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h       31.4%        8.6%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%        7.4%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL132023 230910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20     60.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  17.1  14.4  14.4  15.2  17.0  14.1  22.6  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%