Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     60.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  15.6  15.9  16.0  13.7  18.7  17.2  23.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  81.0  79.0  75.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  28.0  10.0  44.0  22.0  -2.0  54.0  67.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.9%       10.7%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       24.6%       29.8%       27.2%
 30kt / 24h       20.2%       23.6%       21.9%
 35kt / 24h       15.5%       23.6%       19.5%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       22.6%       15.6%
 45kt / 36h       52.8%       16.4%       34.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.1%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       18.3%        7.7%       13.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL132023 230910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     60.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  15.6  15.9  16.0  13.7  18.7  17.2  23.3  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%