Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     61.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  16.8  15.6  16.4  19.0  17.1  22.9  20.8  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  79.0  76.0  70.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  40.0  33.0  51.0 -14.0  54.0  64.0  94.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  10.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.4%       22.7%       34.5%
 25kt / 24h       45.6%       44.9%       45.2%
 30kt / 24h       39.7%       39.6%       39.6%
 35kt / 24h       35.3%       39.6%       37.5%
 40kt / 24h       23.1%       37.9%       30.5%
 45kt / 36h       75.2%       29.9%       52.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.8%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h       22.8%        9.3%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 AL132023 230910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90     61.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  16.8  15.6  16.4  19.0  17.1  22.9  20.8  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  10.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%