Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80     62.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.6  15.5  18.3  16.8  22.7  19.5  18.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  70.0  64.0  59.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  39.0  26.0 -15.0  39.0  65.0 102.0 118.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   8.0  16.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.4%        8.2%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%       19.5%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       14.5%       13.9%
 35kt / 24h       10.8%       14.5%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       13.4%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h       53.0%       10.1%       31.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 AL132023 230911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80     62.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.6  15.5  18.3  16.8  22.7  19.5  18.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  65.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   8.0  16.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%