Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30     63.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  16.1  16.5  20.2  17.7  21.2  17.3  18.6  N  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  52.0  44.0  44.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  24.0 -17.0  10.0  46.0  49.0  97.0  95.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  62.0  65.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  16.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.3%        6.2%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       10.9%       14.2%       12.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%        9.8%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%        9.5%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%        9.1%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h       48.5%        7.8%       28.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 AL132023 230911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30     63.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  16.1  16.5  20.2  17.7  21.2  17.3  18.6  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  62.0  65.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  16.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%