Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     63.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  19.7  21.7  20.2  25.6  19.9  17.1  23.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  50.0  45.0  37.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  54.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0   6.0  24.0  60.0  46.0  93.0 112.0 161.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  58.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   8.0  11.0  16.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.5%        7.1%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.3%       16.0%       14.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       11.5%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       11.5%        9.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       10.5%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h       44.7%        7.6%       26.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 AL132023 230911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     63.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  19.7  21.7  20.2  25.6  19.9  17.1  23.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  58.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   8.0  11.0  16.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%