Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  20.3  18.6  19.8  24.8  15.7  17.7  36.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  56.0  53.0  51.0  46.0  41.0  25.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  59.6  48.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  22.0  69.0  47.0  18.0 100.0 143.0 145.0  N  U  N  N  U  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   7.0   5.0  12.0  13.0  12.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        5.7%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       17.0%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%       12.7%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       12.7%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       11.3%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h       33.0%        6.2%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        3.1%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 AL132023 230912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  20.3  18.6  19.8  24.8  15.7  17.7  36.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   7.0   5.0  12.0  13.0  12.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%