Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  18.0  17.7  25.1  20.2  18.9  23.0  37.6  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  33.0  22.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  52.9  40.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  55.0  28.0  65.0  97.0  92.0 132.0 173.0  N  N  U  N  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0  12.0  11.0  19.0  15.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.6%        5.8%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.3%       15.2%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h       10.5%       10.3%       10.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       10.3%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        9.8%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h       39.9%        6.3%       23.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        3.0%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL132023 230912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  18.0  17.7  25.1  20.2  18.9  23.0  37.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0  12.0  11.0  19.0  15.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%