Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132023 230912 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 66.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 25.6 22.6 15.7 18.7 27.0 38.0 62.7 N N N F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 44.0 41.0 40.0 28.0 13.0 5.0 4.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 52.9 40.5 33.0 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 68.0 38.0 96.0 71.0 111.0 146.0 78.0 N N N F N F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 61.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 53.0 40.0 U U N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 10.0 8.0 9.0 17.0 12.0 14.0 -4.0 N U U U U U U F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.8% 6.8% 8.8% 25kt / 24h 18.9% 21.2% 20.1% 30kt / 24h 12.2% 16.5% 14.4% 35kt / 24h 10.3% 16.5% 13.4% 40kt / 24h 3.6% 14.7% 9.2% 45kt / 36h 43.7% 11.3% 27.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.4% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.86 AL132023 230912 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 66.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 25.6 22.6 15.7 18.7 27.0 38.0 62.7 N N N U N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 61.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 53.0 40.0 F F N N N N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 10.0 8.0 9.0 17.0 12.0 14.0 -4.0 N F F F F F F U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.3% 1.2%