Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00     66.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  23.7  16.7  18.4  22.4  34.5  46.0  65.8  N  N  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  42.0  39.0  34.0  22.0   7.0   1.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  59.6  40.5  29.4  27.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  29.0  72.0 111.0  71.0 128.0 152.0  36.0  N  N  N  F  N  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  47.0  37.0  U  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   9.0   9.0  12.0  10.0   9.0   3.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        3.1%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%       11.1%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%        6.5%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%        6.5%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        6.5%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h       35.7%        4.1%       19.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 AL132023 230913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00     66.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  23.7  16.7  18.4  22.4  34.5  46.0  65.8  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  47.0  37.0  F  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   9.0   9.0  12.0  10.0   9.0   3.0   3.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%