Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132023 230913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     66.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  17.3  19.6  21.1  25.4  33.4  54.0  55.8  N  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  40.0  36.0  27.0  14.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  52.9  34.8  31.2  -7.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  82.0 103.0  69.0 111.0 139.0 141.0  30.0  N  N  F  N  F VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  58.0  47.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0  10.0  14.0   8.0  12.0  -5.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        3.7%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.6%       11.3%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        8.1%        6.7%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        6.7%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%        6.7%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h       33.0%        3.8%       18.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 AL132023 230913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     66.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  17.3  19.6  21.1  25.4  33.4  54.0  55.8  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  58.0  47.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0  10.0  14.0   8.0  12.0  -5.0   8.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%